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Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week 11)

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THE BIG PICTURE

Investors are still operating in a climate that’s prone to volatility so it pays to remain focused on stock market trends within your given timeframe.

Stocks have recovered sharply but there is still plenty of “noise” due to market crosscurrents and bull vs bear chatter. Traders need to follow the price action (and trend indicators) and steer clear of noise and opinions. If the market correction/consolidation continues, your process (and stops and limits) should offer you new looks on both the long & short side of trades.

Below is my weekly trading update and stock market trends outlook. Let’s start by looking at a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

S&P 500 Chart – Week 11 (week of March 12)

sp 500 etf spy price trend bullish analysis research_12 march week

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

 

Current Technical Trends…   

  • VIX Volatility Index levels are in the high 14’s (just down from recent highs)

vix volatility index rally higher chart_12 march

  • NYSE Advance-Decline line is in sync with the Dow Jones Industrial Average – UPTREND

nyse advance decline line stocks bullish chart_12 march week

  • Indices back at (NQ) or near (ES/YM/RTY) all time highs
  • Lowest Open Gaps
    • ES: 1589 | NQ: 3864.75 | RTY: 1462.1 | YM: 14745

 

The Bottom Line

What an amazing rush to finish off week 10 as the NQ breaks and makes new all time highs. That surely put the permabears out to pasture.

As we head into Quad Witch week and earnings season slowing down only to begin here shortly once again, the overall sense remain positive and upbeat as market regains traction and continues to drive higher. So the big question is, do we remain in this chop off the lows of the 200ma to the highs in consolidation, or do we charge ahead with higher highs on the US indices?

As any optimistic trader, I too have upper levels that the market may achieve and likewise, just as many to the downside. My own personal “probability formula” has no mathematical basis as for intraday setups, we simply watch the momentum of the chart as it plays out with absolutely NO BIAS. As for the long term, I prefer to analyze four times a year and simply re-balance the portfolio. For the short-term, this is where the challenge lies, and by this is what I attempt to leave you with each week.

Each week the perspective I strive for is purely based on a technical outlook. To put that big picture together, I use a variety of charts and then step back and equate through a qualitative analysis of both MML support/resistance, moving averages and where price action relates to them. If I lost you there let me paint a picture.

  • To determine overall market momentum, I use the following ETF charts: VTI, FFTY, LDRS, SPY, VXX and UUP.
  • For market pairs in sync: IYJ/IYT; NYAD/INDU;  IBD Psychological market indicators
  • Tech industry strength: XLK and FDN
  • Moving averages and candles: 10/50/200 and Hekin Ashi Flex Renko candles

Now I am sure many of you have preferences and additional indicators you may use to support your weekly hypothesis and who knows, I may even add one to the collection in time. However it isn’t rocket science and you need no graduate degree to appreciate what a market in trend looks like and have a strategy to answer two simple questions. What is my entry and what is my exit? For this Jedi trader, the Heikin Ashi bars have answered those questions and with the support of the Big Picture charts, the timing of entries have a higher chance of probability of success on continuing in trend. Timing can be everything and at this juncture, the entry was several weeks ago so the only position I support is moving one’s stop up (indices) and not initiating any new positions for the short term to either side.

Stepping back and looking ahead to week 11, the CPI data may throw a wrench into the market, but overall momentum is in only one direction right now supported from the fact that more charts as listed above lean UP then DOWN.

Watch for MML setups on price action break above resistance high and back under resistance low for first signs of a pullback. Downside, watch for open gaps to be closed and 50% pullback as 1st level of support.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

 

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

 

The post Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week 11) appeared first on See It Market.


Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week 12)

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Investors are still operating in a climate that is prone to volatility so it pays to stay focused on stock market trends within your given timeframe.

Stocks have recovered sharply but there is still plenty of “noise” due to market crosscurrents and bull vs bear chatter. Traders need to follow the price action (and trend indicators) and steer clear of noise and opinions. If the market correction/consolidation continues, your process (and stops and limits) should offer you new looks on both the long & short side of trades.

Below is my weekly trading update and stock market trends outlook. Let’s start by looking at a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

S&P 500 Chart – Week 12 (week of March 19)

s&p 500 trading chart investing trend analysis_week march 19

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

Current Technical Trend…   

  • VIX Volatility Index levels start the week in the high 15’s as momentum has consolidated.
  • Dow Industrials / Dow Transports
    • Monitor these two indices. When they are in sync, it’s a supporting indicator of  momentum (Up or Down). When they are out of sync, it’s a divergence.

dow industrials vs transports performance chart_dow theory_march 19

  • Advances-Decliners/INDU in sync (uptrend)… but watch the Dow Industrials.

nyse advance decline line breadth analysis_march 19

The Bottom Line

Short and simple because truth be told, sideways price action just doesn’t give me much to think about.

Contract rollover, CPI data out and FOMC ahead in week 12 was enough for the market indices to pull back to their perspective 10ema’s. CONSOLIDATION is the key word here as the key technical charts that I follow each week as posted above to paint a picture of momentum or pullback remain in an UPTREND. As we all may know, consolidation is an opportunity that will breakout in either direction.

Q2 will soon close and a fresh new season of earnings to roll in and either support this momentum or give the market reason to pullback further is yet to be seen. The waiting game may be just what the market will play out here and could last for the remainder of 2018 if need be. I implore you to use the easiest and simplest of technical  indicators and monitor the moving averages and look for crossovers and where price is in relation to. While the NQ has made new all time highs and RTY has bounced back, it is the ES/YM that remain to hover and cling to their perspective 10/50 period ma’s.

Big Picture: Keep your eyes on the Q2 re-balancing of your long term portfolios, swing positions watch for the breakout of the 10ma and intraday, always be ready in both directions for setups that are all in sync and with the highest probability of trend momentum as seen below.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

 

The post Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week 12) appeared first on See It Market.

Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week 15)

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The Big Picture

It’s been a couple weeks since my last weekly outlook here – glad to be back.  Investors are operating in a climate that is prone to volatility so we must remain focused on our stock and stock market trends within our given timeframes.

Stocks are attempting a recovery rally to start the week. There is still plenty of “noise” out there as bulls vs bears continue to chatter. As traders we need to follow the price action (and trend indicators) and steer clear of noise and opinions.

Below is my weekly trading update and stock market trends outlook. Let’s start by looking at a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

S&P 500 Chart – Week 15 (week of April 9)

weekly stock market trend charts april 9

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

Current Technical Trend…   

  • Industrials/Transports
    • Monitor for the two ETF indices to remain in sync as supporting indicator of  momentum (Up or Down)
  • Momentum downside BUT holding at 200 moving average. This may bring a bounce.

dow jones industrials vs transports chart investing week april 9

NYSE Advances-Decline Line and Dow Jones Industrial Average are trading in sync. Watch for next move.

nyse advance decline stocks analysis investing chart_year 2018

Stock market indices trading at 200 period moving averages with open gaps both above/below.

stock marke indices 200 day moving averages investing analysis_april 9

 

The Bottom Line

After a brief hiatus I am back in the drivers seat. As the markets migrate and settle in, consolidation may take place at the 200 period moving averages.

After an established uptrend run that came back to test the 200 day moving average, the Nasdaq lifted back to the highs while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average remained more reserved that were unable to maintain momentum above the 10 or 50 period moving averages. The S&P 500 futures (ES) momentarily regained its 50 ma but wasn’t able to cross and hold above it. This lead to the latest market pullback and retest of the 200 day ma.

So I see two scenarios playing out. There is NO QUESTION, the market is in correction and the momentum can tip the scales in either direction. Do the big banks (reporting this Friday) hold the market up or does the plug get pulled and we start closing out downside open gaps under the 200ma.

From the economic stage, earnings season is once again upon us which can impact. Trade tariffs perhaps and FOMC rate hikes surely can play a role for the mid-term. But neither of these as a technical observer effects the daily momentum. Sure, intraday we are ready in both directions but the bigger weekly question I look for is where is the market pulse and what is the probability that we maintain the current position or initiate a selloff or back upside.

Technically, my ETF charts that symbolize market momentum clearly paints a picture of momentum building to the downside in this short term pullback of the bigger pic Uptrend. The 200ma is a big line to watch and must be respected for it’s support of price action holding above. As long as we stay above it, technical momentum will hold in the bigger picture and breakout of consolidation will be the key to market direction. I don’t claim to have a crystal ball insight and by simply watching the charts tells me all. The ADX which I have been monitoring over the last several weeks on my charts also backs up my technical perspective of downtrend momentum that is flat-lined in consolidation. Weekly Heikin Ashi Doji bars, don’t make it any easier.

Keep your eyes on the 200ma. Watch for the 10ema to go under the 200ma and if 200>50>10>PRICE, we have ourselves a deeper correction coming. Till then, patience is the game in this market uptrend that has just as much probability in either direction.

Big Picture Market Pulse: Consolidation at the key moving averages as they are out of sync. ADX momentum downside on Indices as VIX volatility remains strong to the upside.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

 

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

 

The post Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week 15) appeared first on See It Market.

Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week 17)

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The Big Picture

After a week off, I’m glad to be back.  Investors are operating in a climate that is prone to reversals and quick moves so we must remain focused on stock market trends within our given trading timeframes.

There is still a lot of “noise” out there as bulls vs bears continue to state their case. As traders we need to follow the price action (and trend indicators) and steer clear of noise and opinions.

Below is my weekly trading update and stock market trends outlook. Let’s start by looking at a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

Stock Market Trends For Week 17 (week of April 23)

stock market indices price trends chart analysis april 23

Current Technical Trends   

  • Stock market indices on pullback to Major S/R and under 50ma. IWM exception.
  • Daily VXX (VIX Volatility) momentum downtrend
  • Weekly uptrend momentum stalling
  • Dow Jones Industrials/Transports
    • Monitor for the two ETF indices to remain in sync as supporting indicator of  momentum (Up or Down)
    • Momentum uptrend /ADX flat
  • Advances-Decliners/INDU in sync

nyse advance decline line trend higher bullish_april 23

  • Indices Futures momentum stalled on downtrend probability increasing

The Bottom Line

Low volume and turn-around in week 16 back downside as the key moving averages fail to gain momentum in sync upside. The 200ma continues to be the strong conduit for market  draw and bounce back upside in a bigger pic consolidation. Just enough of a correction to keep us within shouting distance of the highs. Technically, the momentum has stalled in favor of the downtrend as price action will either break to the upside and regain synchronous traction on the moving average sot take us higher, or we retest the 200ma once again. either way. For the intraday trader, both directions offer opportunity. Swing traders, be ready for major earnings to move the market and respond at the 50ma. Long term, sit quietly and wait to re-balance at lower price at the end of Q3.

Big Picture Market Pulse: Consolidation at the key moving averages (10/50ema) as they are out of sync. ADX momentum downside on Indices as VIX volatility stalls and turns downside.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

 

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

 

The post Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week 17) appeared first on See It Market.

Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week 19)

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The Big Picture

Investors are operating in a climate that is prone to reversals and quick moves so we must remain focused on managing our trades within our given trading timeframes.

There is still a lot of “noise” out there as bulls vs bears continue to state (and re-state) their case. As traders, it is wise to follow the price action (and trend indicators) and steer clear of noise and opinions.

Below is my weekly trading update and stock market trends outlook. Let’s start by looking at chart of the major stock market indices, including S&P 500 ETF (SPY).

Current Technical Trends For Week 19 (week of May 7)

stock market trends indicators bullish bearish analysis_7 may 2018

  • Indices ADX momentum down; moving averages out of sync, consolidation ensues.

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

  • Check out my Week 18 recap and trend charts
  • Daily VXX (VIX Volatility) momentum FLAT
  • Weekly uptrend momentum pullback
  • Industrials/Transports
    • Monitor for the two ETF indices to remain in sync as supporting indicator of  momentum (Up or Down)
    • Momentum down /ADX down

dow jones industrial average transportation performance chart_may 7

  • NYSE Advance-Decline Line in sync with Dow Jones Industrials

nyse advance decline stock market investing chart_may 7

The Bottom Line

Finishing off week 18 on the NFP report  to give a little push in the market unfortunately on lower volume.  ADX momentum continues to drawn down though flat to the naked eye. Moving averages continue to be out of sync where preferred to see price action above or below the 10, 50 and 200 in Trend, we continue to be congested, consolidated and range bound. not an electric year for 2018 so far. The 200ma remains top be the last stronghold as market price action continues to hold the line.

Technically, the momentum remains unchanged as price action will either break to the upside and regain synchronous traction on the moving averages to take us higher, or we retest the 200ma once again and drop further. Watch for the daily ADX to cross to indicate direction of short term trend and confirmation of price breaking back above the 50ma with the 10ma trailing. If the market is unable to regain the traction, weakness will prevail and probability will take us down further. Tough call in congestion. 50% get it right, the other half  missed the mark.

For the intraday trader, both directions offer opportunity. Swing traders, be ready for major earnings to move the market and respond at the 50ma. Long term, sit quietly and wait to re-balance at lower price at the end of Q3.

The Big Picture Market Pulse: Consolidation remains at the key moving averages (10/50ema) as they are out of sync with slight edge to the downside. ADX momentum downside FLAT on Indices as VIX volatility trending downside.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

 

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

 

The post Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week 19) appeared first on See It Market.

Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week of March 4)

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THE BIG PICTURE

The up-trend has been resilient, even as bears try once more for a pullback.

This resiliency is what grinds out market bears. And just when investors begin to find comfort in the easy ride, we get a snap pullback.

There is still a lot of “noise” out there as bulls and bears make their cases for and against equities. As traders, it is wise to follow the price action (and trend indicators) and tune out the noise and opinions.

Below is my weekly trading update and stock market trends outlook with a few select charts. Let’s begin today’s update by looking at chart of a broad stock market index, the S&P 500. Below is a chart of the ETF (SPY).

Current Technical Trends – Week of March 4, 2019

s&p 500 index etf trend analysis chart image_bullish_4 march 2019

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

Market Highlights:

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is trading in short term MML range after pullback off 281 resistance

Short term daily range from $269 MML support to $281 resistance

Long Term bounce off support at 234 holding above 277 reversal

Price action above all moving averages

10ema>200sma>50ema>100sma; looking for all in sync for push higher

10 day EMA support since January 4th

Overbought at 81.20 RSI

Average trading range closes out at 2.44

MACD pullback initiated

VIX continues to gradually decline; under 15

Industrials/Transports

  • Monitor for the two ETF indices to remain in sync as supporting indicator of  momentum (Up or Down)
    • Price action at Daily MML resistance zones
dow industrials transports trend analysis chart image_bullish_4 march 2019

Total Stock Market Momentum – VTI

vti total stock market chart analysis investing_4 march 2019

Current IBD Outlook: Market in Confirmed Uptrend

IBD ETF strategy:100% invested

Current Trend in key ETF Indices may be FOUND HERE

Key Events in the market this week

USA:Employment

Earnings: Costco, Target

Wholesale Chains reports

Futures contract expiry nears

THE BOTTOM LINE

Been a rough ride intraday at the tops but we continue to hold strong off the bounce of end of Q4/2018 at the MML lows on the daily chart. While volume has been hovering around under the 60-day average, the slow steady grind upside is welcome as solid strength x 2 months.

GDP numbers out, employment this week and Brexit deadline this month with upcoming earnings for Q1 in the next month is enough to take us to the next level. 

Technically, the momentum remains upside above the 10ema. Watch the 5ema for even shorter support and look for any crossover of the two for pullback opportunities back upside off the MML. Moving averages continue to be out of sync and looking for the 50 to cross above the 200 for even stronger support. MML reset long term will give us our next level upside.

Pullback opportunities back upside off the 200, long term overbought MML levels downside, down to the 50ma and top-level resistance as long as price action remains stable for next move up.

For the intraday trader, both directions offer opportunity. Swing traders, be ready for pullbacks of MML major support off 4-hour charts. Long term, sit quietly and wait to re-balance at lower price at the end of Q3.

Big Picture Market Pulse:  With VIX under 15 and back up near short term MML resistance, watch for price action to continue up to short term reversal until we have a mid-term MML reset, monitoring the 5/10 moving averages for a continued move. I believe we are working off overbought conditions before another push higher.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week of March 4) appeared first on See It Market.

Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week of March 11)

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THE BIG PICTURE

The stock market up-trend has been resilient. While the short-term trend was disrupted last week for a quick pullback, the broader trend is still up.

From the jobs report to the Boeing (BA) news, there is sa lot of “noise” out there. Note as well that the recent negative news hasn’t helped the bears much (yet).

As traders, it is smart to follow the price action (and trend indicators) and tune out the noise and opinions.

Below is my monthly, weekly and daily trading charts with an updated stock market trends outlook. Let’s begin today’s update by looking at chart of a broad stock market index, the S&P 500.

Current Technical Trends – Week of March 11, 2019

S&P 500 (SPY) Daily / Weekly

s&p 500 index long term stock market analysis trends bullish forecast month march year 2019

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

SPY Daily (up close)

s&p 500 stock market trading trends short term anlaysis bullish week march 11

Insights and Data Highlights:

$SPY pullback is within short-term MML range.

Short-term daily range from $281 MML resistance down to $273 support holds.

60 day MML range at Major S/R – 50% pullback – Uptrend

90 day MML range holding above midway Major S/R – Uptrend

Long Term bounce off support at 234 holding breaks 277 reversal down to 273.

Price action remains above key moving averages.

10ema>200sma>PRICE>50ema>100sma; looking for all in sync for push higher.

10 day EMA support since January 4th broke on 3/06.

5/10ema crossover to downside.

RSI working down to Oversold zone.

VIX Volatility Index continues to vacillate around 13-17; Closes at low 16’s.

Key Events in the market this week

  • USA:January Retail, Quad Witch, CPI
  • Earnings:
    • Dollar General
  • Chip giants reports
  • Futures contract expires end of the week

The Bottom Line

Last week: Technically, the momentum remains upside above the 10ema. Watch the 5ema for even shorter support and look for any crossover of the two for pullback opportunities back upside off the MML.

Seems market played well off the MML resistance down to the 200ma and MML support on the short term. With three out of the 4 MML ranges remaining in an uptrend, no change in overall market direction mid to long term.

Moving averages continue to be out of sync as the 5 crosses 10ema downside and we are back at the 200ma.

Upside Probability: Watch for price action to break and hold above the 200 as the 5 crosses back upside over the 10ema. Key here is whether we hold above MML support/200ma. Halfway 277 is the next level up.

Downside Probability: With the 5/10ema cross downside and supporting market internals downside, market may test the 50ma and short term overbought/reversal levels. Deeper selling will test the 269-265 range if market internals continue to drop to oversold conditions.

Monitoring the 4hr charts for either direction and splicing in on a 60m chart cuts out the noise.

For the intraday trader, both directions offer opportunity. Swing traders, be ready for pullbacks of MML major support off 4 hour charts. Long term, sit quietly and wait to re-balance at lower price at the end of Q3.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week of March 11) appeared first on See It Market.

Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week of May 6)

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THE BIG PICTURE

The stock market up-trend has been resilient. While the short-term trend was disrupted last week for a quick pullback, the broader trend is still up.

Below is my monthly, weekly and daily trading charts with an updated stock market trends outlook. Let’s begin today’s update by looking at chart of a broad stock market index, the S&P 500.

Current Technical Trends – Week of May 6, 2019

$SPY S&P 500 Weekly/Monthly Charts

s&p 500 weekly monthly stock market price charts bullish trend investing_may 6

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

$SPY S&P 500 Daily Chart

s&p 500 daily stock market price chart analysis investing news _ may 6

Here’s a summary trend analysis of the S&P 500:

  • $SPY (60m/4hr) on progressive move to MML highs after bounce off midweek lows
  • 60 day MML range at overbought/reversal gap – Uptrend
  • 90+ day MML range holding just above reversal – Uptrend
  • Long Term MML back at all time highs with 302/304 reversal level upside 
  • Price action holding above moving averages
    • 10ma>50ma>100ma>200ma; in sync
  • 10 day EMA broken on May 2nd since support above on March 29th; back above
  • 5/10ema crossover upside holding since March 29th
  • RSI back under oversold
  • Average trading range closes out at 2.28 after 4/23 lows
  • MACD pullback continues, gap spread steady, histogram under 0 
  • VIX continues to vacillate around 13-15; Closes at high 12’s

Current Trends of key ETF indices can be FOUND HERE

Key Events in the market this week:

  • Economic Indicators: CPI, JOLTS
  • Fed Speakers, Powell
  • Earnings:
    • Disney, Lyft, Etsy
  • Energy Sector reports
  • China Trade deal deadline
  • Micro futures market opens (CME)

The Bottom Line:

Downside Probability: With price action at MML highs on longer term charts with still room to move to reversal tops (300-305), the RSI and MACD leaning down, the momentum surely has reason to pullback. With the China trade deadline on the table and today’s Globex reaction, we may just see that play out before we go higher.

Upside Probability: 60m/4hr chart momentum off last weeks lows are showing progressive move upwards. Moving averages in sync and earnings remaining strong. Long term charts remain consolidated at MML highs. Supporting ETF’s including Industrial/Transports remain upside.

Big Picture Market Pulse: The big pic long term still has room to move up and I firmly believe based on my chart analysis that we are in for another move up. However, we all know with markets, a pullback is always good before the next move higher. With this latest run up since the end of March from MML lows to the highs, gives an opportunity for all indicators to reset and project new highs for what its worth.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Stock Market Trends Update & Outlook (Week of May 6) appeared first on See It Market.






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