THE BIG PICTURE – What Lies Ahead?

The stock market indices continue to show strength with the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) soaring to new all time highs in week 18 and the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) reaching new weekly closing highs.

Market futures for both indices maintain its relentless uptrend, holding above the short term 10 and mid-term 50 period moving averages.

Last week: “With price action now back above the 10/50 ma’s, attention on the ES and YM turn to the all time highs seen back in March.”

Mission accomplished for 2 or 3 indices.

The VIX Volatility Index closed out the week with a 10 handle after dipping into the 9’s earlier in the week! But the stock market found its footing and grew some legs by the end of the week to regain new all time highs and regain a high on the S&P 500 futures not seen since March, 2017. Perhaps no raise in the interest rates by the Fed Reserve, health care vote passing and non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations appeared to be enough for price action to continue to maintain momentum above the 10 period moving average and well above the 50.

As Danny Riley states, “these are not our father’s markets.” Rightfully so, however if you want to play in the sandbox, you need to adapt and get your mindset in the game. The game of realize that we continue to technically be in an uptrend and leaving your bias at the door, you may be open to seeing the charts differently.

The NQ (Nasdaq futures) appears at this point to leading the indices as the economic data out of the FANG stocks overall seem strong. The elephant in the room is that volume at week’s end was dismal. While intraday trend doesn’t necessarily need volume, in the big picture it is something that should be noticed to watch for follow through in the days to come.

Key events in the market this week include FRENCH ELECTIONS on Sunday and post results. Minor events include JOLT’s, Earnings winding down and Multiple Fed Speakers… and throw in Washington politics, economic reform and world instability for good measures.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND on the bigger picture. Signs of market strength continue as the NQ pushed to all time highs on post data. Beware of the catalyst wrench that looms overhead.

Note that you can also view my market outlook on YouTube.  Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

NQ – NASDAQ FUTURES

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly)

*  Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5595.5, 5512.75, 5449.75

Lowest Open Gap: 4017

ES – S&P 500 FUTURES

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly)

Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2374, 2353

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Weekly Trend Analysis – May 8 appeared first on See It Market.

QUICK RECAP – Just when you thought…

The week 20 recap was basically a rinse, wash and repeat of week 18. Wednesday’s sell off in the market had the permabears drooling for more, but the market did what it has been relentlessly doing for 6 months now – it fought back.

The market found its footing and not only managed to retrace 50% of the down move but entirely taking it back (plus some) to settle near the weekly open. For the week, the S&P 500 cash index (INDEXSP:.INX) was down just 0.4%, while the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) was down 0.6%.

See the weekly trend chart for S&P 500 futures (ES) below.

As an aside, please join me at my upcoming trading webinar for infinity futures and the live trading challenge.

The stock market indices managed to regain traction on the daily charts and hold above their respective 50 day ema’s, while nudging back above the short term 10 period moving average. This is a clear indicator of continued trend and momentum for swing traders.

THE BIG PICTURE – What’s Ahead?

The VIX Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) closed out the week in the low 12’s after climbing into the mid 15’s right. And while the major stock market indices rallied back from the depths of a quick selloff, traders should tune into key technical indicators… and reminder to keep it simple.

It has been some time since the market has fluctuated around the key moving averages that I observe and now has become an integral part of the upside momentum and/or potential for a short selling opportunity. Observing and keeping these averages in mind as I do, may keep you on the right side of the trade.

• 10 day ma: Watch for price action to hold above for short term trend
• 50 day ma: As long as price action finds support at this level and holds above; trend remains in an uptrend. Any move downside and the 50ma becomes resistance. look for price to continue its move further to the short.
• 200ma: Indices well above the institutional support and of no concern yet at this time.

If price momentum holds above the 3 key moving averages, using the Murray Math Levels (MML) zone high would be the first levels of resistance that I would look for a potential stall out in the market. While the S&P 500 futures (ES) and Nasdaq futures (NQ) sit at the major support resistance off the lows, the higher probability remains to the upside. If momentum is unable to hold at the 10 day ma, watch for the 50 day ma to become support in the MML zone low. Any further selling below the 50ma, open gaps will be in play, including the 4hr and daily MML levels downside.

Key events in the market this week include multiple fed speakers and the FOMC minutes. On Wednesday, the politics of  Comey testifying will test (again) the market’s reaction. As the end of the week approaches, we may see diminished volume as traders look to the upcoming holiday weekend.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND  on the bigger pic. Signs of market strength continue as the indices rebounded off the drawdown of midweek 20. Beware of the catalyst wrench that looms overhead of if and when the market will sell off  even further.

Note that you can also view my market outlook on YouTube.  Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

NASDAQ FUTURES – (NQ)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

• Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly)
• Lowest Open Gap: 4017

S&P FUTURES –  (ES)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

• Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly)
• Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post S&P 500 And Nasdaq Futures Weekly Trend Analysis – May 22 appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE – What’s Ahead?

Key stock market futures indices held and closed above their weekly open, with the Nasdaq futures (NQ) and S&P 500 futures (ES) making new all time highs in week 21.  This comes even while the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 continue to lag.

Either way, the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) and S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) maintain a relentless uptrend, holding above the short term 10 and mid-term 50 period moving averages.

Nasdaq & S&P 500 Futures “Trend” Charts

Tech industry/FANG stocks under the umbrella of the Nasdaq futures (NQ), appear to be leading the fight upside. Surely the iconic “sell in May and go away” is not playing out well for those who enjoy the cyclic events in the market.

On the Macro view to the market, I leave it to the likes of KennyPolcari, MrTopStep and Jason Kelly who seem to cover just enough materials for me to read each day and provide me with a quality high level look at the fundamentals for my trading overview. From there, I turn to the technicals. And, by keeping it as simple as moving averages and MML levels, I am able to define where the highest probability is for a continued trend or pullback.

Volume in week 21 was light, so I remain a bit cautious into week 22 (I would like to see a follow through with price and volume rising together). If we do see a pullback, we’ll want to eye the open gaps made in week 21 as points of reference, including the 10 day moving average.

Looking at the MML levels on the higher time frames:  price action is at the ZONE HIGH on the Nasdaq and Dow Jones and the S&P 500 has probability on its side to reach the MML Zone high soon.

Key events in the market this week include fed speakers, end of month, JOLT’s and Payroll numbers. Holiday weekend with no session on Monday as the June contract expiration nears.

Note that you can also view my market outlook on YouTube.  Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL, 6J, 6E

THE BOTTOM LINE

NQ/ES sitting well above the T34ema on the higher time frame range chart holds the current momentum upside as the YM struggles to maintain pace. Downside action will test the T34ema support and daily 10ema including open gaps from week 21 and MML Zone Low. Deeper pullbacks will test the daily 50ema. Momentum to the upside continue to monitor higher lows and highs and 60m MML levels. Employment numbers in the later part of the week will be the ones to watch.

I will provide updates through social media and via my daily outlook; posted 30 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

Nasdaq Futures   (NQ)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and Range)

• Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5734.5, 5512.75, 5449.75
• Lowest Open Gap: 4017

S&P Futures   (ES)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and Range)

• Nearest Open Daily Gap: 2404.5, 2315.75
• Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Weekly Trend Trading Outlook (May 29) appeared first on See It Market.

BIG PICTURE – What’s Ahead?

Recapping last week, the market indices held and closed above the weekly open (full recap which may be found here) with the several key indices including the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) achieving new all time highs in week 22.

The beat goes on… and the market maintains its unprecedented and somewhat bewildering relentless uptrend. Each index holds above the short term 10 and mid-term 50 period moving averages.

VIX levels once again are hovering around historic lows under 9 as the market has been quite complacent with the status quo. No question as to a matter if but when the dips are being bought on an intraday basis. Volume not being an issue as price action has maintained its course upside. FANG stocks hitting all time highs as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) crosses the $1000 finish line and holds above to close out week 22. “Sell in May and Go away” did not play out well for the permabear and with two days into June, it doesn’t seem to be letting up anytime soon. Then again, rate hikes and world unbalance in Venezuela and Brazil to start, can throw the markets into a tizzy in the doldrums of summer trading.

Playing caution into last week, where I wanted to see a follow through with price and volume was a match met. Open Gaps were closed on the ES and YM and only the NQ to form a new gap.

With no upper levels at all time highs to refer to and retest, technical upper levels are left to the projections of studies that forecast out percentages. Be it Fibonacci projections, daily upper resistance levels or Murray Math Levels to name a few that can be levels to watch upside.

MML levels on the higher time frames, price action consolidates at the ZONE HIGH on all 3 indices to finish out week 22. Upper level resistance as price momentum on the Heikin Ashi bars maintain TREND on the range charts will look to daily and weekly MML levels. The most reliable indicator for MML levels being the 1 hour for the higher time frame, and 5 minute intraday will be reassessed daily as price action moves ahead both in price and time. Unless price is able to break above the 60m levels, a pullback to the 50% and/or 10ema for first levels of support downside will be in play. Watch for the T3 moving averages on each perspective market on the higher time range charts for support downside as well.

Key events in the market this week include Jolt’s, Apple (NASDAQ:APPL) event, contract rollover on trading platforms and UK vote on the 8th. June contract expiration nears on the indices on the 16th, Quad Witch Friday. Note: Comey to testify before senate panel.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND  on the bigger pic as we hold above the key moving averages with caution at the MML highs as the VIX holds under 10. Beware of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead of if and when the market may sell off in reaction to unsettling news.

Note that you can also view my market outlook on YouTube.  Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL, 6J, 6E

The BOTTOM LINE

Indices holding at all time highs. Downside support on change in TREND will look to the 10ema and 60m MML Zone Low. First level of support will be the 50% pullback on the week 22 uptrend.  Anything lower look to the higher time frame range chart T3 moving averages. Deep pullbacks will test the 50ma. Consolidation at the highs before any breakout will see a 60m reset of the MML upside and intraday 5m range charts for short term range.

I will continue to notify readers through social media and my daily outlook; posted 30 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and Range)

• Nearest Open Daily Gap: 5823, 5734.5, 5512.75, 5449.75
• Lowest Open Gap: 4017

ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and Range)

• Nearest Open Daily Gap:  2315.75
• Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Weekly Trend Trading Outlook – June 5 appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE – What Lies Ahead?

Recapping last week, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) held and closed above the weekly open while the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) pulled back to close out two daily open gaps and is in the zone of the 50ma.

All 3 major stock market indices made new all time highs in week 23, maintaining their unprecedented and  relentless uptrend. Each index still holds above mid-term 50 period moving averages (recap which may be found here).

VIX levels are maintaining in the 9 -10’s as we head into week 24. There appears to be a big picture of complacency as the Nasdaq selloff barely affected the other indices. Volume will now shift to the September contract as we approach June contract expiration. FANG stocks hitting all time highs and the AMZN/GOOGL pair breaking the 1K mark only to finish downside on Friday will look to regain some traction and what some may consider a sale price. Permabears may come out to play if any additional selling plays out as Jim Rogers in his Friday post already laying out the Doom & Gloom ahead. Keep your eyes on Brazil, UK and FOMC to move the markets in either direction.

With the open gaps now closed out on the NQ and the nearest ones below will sure send the market into a tizzy. The focus will be if the indices can hold or regain (NQ) it’s momentum above the 10ema and reach new upper highs. Since no upper levels beyond the all time highs to refer to and retest, technical upper levels are left to the projections of studies that forecast out percentages. Be it Fibonacci projections, daily upper resistance levels or Murray Math Levels to name a few that can be levels to watch upside.

Crude oil is struggling to regain momentum back above the key moving averages and with two open gaps below, is finding a consolidation base at the MML Zone Low. Watch for a retest upside tot he 50ma or maintain momentum down to close out the gaps down to 43,81. Bigger pic momentum remains down.

Gold is also struggling to regain the highs of 2016, and is vacillating between the Daily MML zones. It barely held above the 50ma before retesting and bouncing back up. Look for the retest once again as price action draws to MML Zone Low and the 50ema. Bigger pic momentum remains upside yet in consolidation.

Key events in the market this week include FOMC meeting and Quad Witching. June contract expiration on the 16th, 

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND on the bigger picture as we hold above the key moving averages. Beware of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead of if and when the market may sell off in reaction to unsettling news.

Note that you can also view my market outlook on YouTube.  Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL, 6J, 6E

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

THE BOTTOM LINE

With contract rollover approaching and indices (YM/ES) holding at all time highs, watch for the follow through of Friday’s price action to set the tone at the start of the week.

Look for Nasdaq futures (NQ) to test support at 50ma downside (50% Daily MML). An 80 point move to regain traction above the 10ema will be a challenge for the NQ as the short term higher time frame momentum has shifted to the downtrend. Deeper pullbacks will look for Daily MML, 200ma and open gaps.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND  PULLBACK

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and Range)

• Lowest Open Gap: 4017

S&P 500 Futures (ES)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and Range)

• Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Weekly Trend Analysis – June 11 appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE – What’s Ahead?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX:.DJI) and S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) held and closed above their weekly opens while the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) pulled back to close out its next open gap before finding support near the the 50 day moving average.

The Dow Jones remains the strongest of the big 3 stock market indices, but together with the S&P 500, they maintain strong uptrends; both are holding above the mid-term 50 period and short term 10ema moving averages (a full recap which may be found here).

The Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) remains in the 10-11’s as we head into week 25 and volume has shifted to the September contract… are the doldrums of summer here… or not? Permabears are starting to beat on their drums that this is the end game and we have no further momentum to maintain our uptrend continue to hit the airwaves.

AMZN coming out on Friday with a buyout of Whole Foods gets a 23 point boost as it tracks back to its highs above 1000. FANG stocks now being referred to as the FAAMG group taking the brunt of the NQ slap downside as markets reassess portfolio exposure to these “too big” to fail stocks which seem to maintain a large percentage of the index gains for 2017. It appears the case that can be made is that “things” are not that great from the weekly economic data but they also are not in a catastrophic bubble that has burst yet. Whatever the catalyst is that we have created for ourselves, seems to be holding up the status quo and while the tech industry took a pullback in the last several weeks, overall momentum is maintaining its uptrend structure. Be it political or economic fallout which is what it may take for the market to drive any deeper, Q2 earnings will surely be the next telltale of where we are headed next and surely if the NQ regains its traction upside.

Technically, the open gaps which remain below and closest on Nasdaq futures (NQ) downside are all targets sitting on the indices backside (I can almost see the drooling of the short sellers ready to close them out). The focus as the S&P 500 futures (ES) consolidates will be on the short term 10ema. Consolidation surely leads to a breakout of either direction and momentum remains at the highs.

Nasdaq futures (NQ) which struggles at the daily 50 moving average and encapsulated in a range bound chop of the 10/50 averages leads momentum into week 25 to the short on a 50% pullback of Friday’s price action. Market place semi-loss of enthusiasm which has not helped the cause for the FANG/FAAMG stocks, may just be what holds it down. What the average trader simply wants to be told is that this is the bottom and that the long position looks profitable. I say, read the charts and recognize that the NQ has had a valid technical “healthy” pullback and that any further pullback would be to the 200ma and 50% daily fib level. Otherwise, we hold here until momentum swings back above the 10ema and regains the upper highs.

Crude Oil closing out the 44.25 gap and one below at 43.81 continues to struggle to gain traction back upside above the 10ema. Trend momentum maintains its downward pressure. Retest back upside to break the T3 -40ema and back above the 10ema will look to the 50ema at 48-49. Bigger pic momentum remains down on crossover setup at 50.06

Gold which struggles to regain the highs of 2016, momentum remains downside as it has been unable to hold above it’s key moving averages yet above the daily 200ma. Fib 50% pullback at 1256 will be the level to watch down to 61.8% and/or regain traction back above the 10ema. Bigger picture momentum remains upside with the short-term looking down.

Key events in the market this week include FED speakers, PMI, and Brexit talks. Light econ data.

Note that you can also view my market outlook on YouTube.  Markets Covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL, 6J, 6E

THE BOTTOM LINE

Look for Nasdaq futures (NQ) to break out of 10/50 moving average range bound chop. A break above the 50ma will point to the highs of last week and a daily MML reversal. A 70 point move to regain traction above the 10ema will be the challenge for the NQ as the short term higher time frame momentum has shifted to the downtrend.  Deeper pullbacks will look for Daily MML support, 200ma and open gaps.

S&P 500 and Dow Jones are maintaining momentum upside, watch for any short term correction to fall below the 10ema to drop to the 50ma. If price action maintains above the 10ma, retesting the all time high of week 23/24 and breaking above will look for daily MML high levels.

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND  PULLBACK

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and Range)

• Lowest Open Gap: 4017

ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and Range)

• Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Weekly Trend Analysis – June 19 appeared first on See It Market.

BIG PICTURE – What’s Ahead?

Looking across the major stock market futures indices, the Dow Jones Industrials (INDEXDJX:.DJI) and S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) closed below the weekly open, while the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) closed above.

Open gaps closed on Dow Jones futures (YM) and S&P 500 futures (ES), while Nasdaq futures (NQ) broke back above the 61.8% fibonacci price level as it moves closer to the all time high (recap which may be found here).  See chart below for a quick trend analysis snapshot.

The VIX Volatility Index is still hanging near 10 as we head into week 26 and lower volume is showing up (summer doldrums). However, Permabears are starting to increase the volume of their bearish drum beat.

FANG/FAAMG stocks remain steady and climbing back upside as the YM/ES are not seeing the deep pullback that the NQ did in Week 23. This may give the NQ an opportunity to play catch up in momentum. Overall, economic data is not as strong as we wish it to be. So we await Q2 earnings season for clarity to the big picture.

Key events in the market this week include FED speakers, GDP, non-Farm Payrolls and end of Q2.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in an UPTREND on the bigger picture as we hold above the key moving averages. As always, BEWARE of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead if and when the market may sell off in reaction to unsettling news.

THE BOTTOM LINE

With the NQ breaking the 61.8%  pullback and now holding above the 10ema, short term test will be for the index to hold above and move towards the all time highs. Any pullback will watch the 50ma and MML lower zones. Deeper pullbacks will look to the 200ma and open gaps.

ES/YM maintaining it’s momentum upside, holds in consolidation at the 10ema. Pullback to the 50ma will be the first level of support. Momentum upside look back up to the highs.

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND 

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and Range)

• Lowest Open Gap: 4017

S&P 500 Futures (ES)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND CONSOLIDATION

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and Range)

• Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Weekly Trend Outlook – June 26 appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE – What’s Ahead?

The major stock market indices closed lower than the weekly open. We did see strong trending sessions 4/5 days to close out the books on Q2 and week 26.

That said, the volatile price action mid-week made it extremely difficult to hang on for the ride down (a weekly recap which may be found here).  The Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) lead the way lower, followed by the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and Dow Jones Industrials (INDEXDJX:.DJI).

VIX levels spiked higher but ended the week in the 10-11 range. Volume hasn’t been to bad as we roll into Q3 and earnings season for the next 6 weeks. Watch for the permabears beating their drum of the doom and gloom that lies ahead.

FANG/FAAMG stocks remain steady  as the YM/ES remain consolidated. NQ all over the place and losing it’s relentless drive upside. Overall JUNE economic data not as strong as we wish it to be, needs to pick up significantly in conjunction with good earnings for Q2.  Combined with summer momentum, the probability of a pullback seems to be building.

Technically, the market indices open gaps remain below and viable targets for a pullback on all three. The ES/YM further downside may be the summer targets as price action wallows around the key moving averages and appears to be losing its hold on the NQ. As always be ready for both directions in the unpredictable market.

Key events in the market this week include Q3 start, FOMC minutes, ADP, non-farm Payrolls and earnings season approaching.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Overall looking for a summer pullback/correction and then regain traction back upside.

Nasdaq futures (NQ) are losing support at the 10/50ema and sitting at @ the 50% Daily MML with two immediate open gaps below – watch for the MML zone low support and 200ma. Bulls need momentum to pick up to regain the 10 day ema and close out open gap upside.

S&P 500 (ES) and Dow Jones futures (YM) maintain momentum upside and remain in consolidation around the 10/50 period moving averages. A deeper pullback on the ES will retest 50% MML and lower to the 200ma. YM look for support downside at the 50. Momentum upside look to the highs on the breakout back to all time highs.

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and Range)

• Lowest Open Gap: 4017

ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND CONSOLIDATION

Multiple MML Overlay (4hr with 60m/Daily/Weekly and Range)

• Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Nasdaq and S&P 500 Futures Trend Trading Outlook – July 3 appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE

The major stock market indices closed last week slightly lower than the weekly open. Volume was average and no major gaps opened up.

But traders are heading into a new week… and its time for a check-up on the Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC),  S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX), Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT).  Market futures trading outlook at a glance:

The S&P 500 regained the 50 day moving average after briefly losing it. S&P 500 futures closed out the week in the 10/50 day ma zone as it remains in 6 weeks of consolidation (2^nd chart).

What Lies Ahead?

VIX levels remain low as we head into week 28 as the RTY (CME Russell index) joins the ranks on Monday (see chart analysis below). Summertime momentum at its best in the AM session as we roll into earnings season to paint the big picture for the cause to remain at the highs or market correction. Permabears not gone and still beating on the drums that the pullback is-a-coming.

FANG/FAAMG stocks remain downside from the highs as the NQ steadies itself into consolidation between the highs of June and the April open gaps right below.

Technically, the indices open gaps remain below and viable targets for a pullback on all three (NQ/YM/ES) as not enough data on the RTY exists as of yet. The ES/YM further downside may be the short-term targets as price action holds to the moving averages with some evidence of weakness. NQ targets downside easily reachable in 1-2 sessions.  As always be ready for both directions in the unpredictable market.

Key events in the market this week include Fed Speakers, YELLEN testifies, and earnings season approaching.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND on the bigger pic as we hold above the key moving averages but with caution as the 50ma is in the zone of Friday’s close on the NQ/ES and RTY. As always, BEWARE of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead of if and when the market may sell off in reaction to unsettling news.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Still watching for a summer pullback/correction and then regain traction back upside.

The Nasdaq remains key. NQ losing support at the 50ma and closing out the week at the 10ema in consolidation. Continue to monitor for momentum to the open gaps below if unable to break upside above the 10ma. Upside momentum needs to regain back above the 50ma to the MML zone high.

MARKET FUTURES TRADING OUTLOOK BY EQUITY INDEX – JULY 10

Nasdaq Futures  (NQ)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback/Consolidation

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )

• Lowest Open Gap: 4017

S&P 500 Futures  (ES)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Consolidation

Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )

• Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75

Russell Futures  (RTY – CME)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Consolidation

Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY)

• Lowest Open Gap: NONE

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Nasdaq, Russell 2000, and S&P 500 Weekly Futures Trend Outlook – July 10 appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE

The VIX Volatility (INDEXCBOE:VIX) continues to trade below 10 as we head into week 29. Market history raises claim to such low levels as caution for the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) to retreat however it’s been wavering at these lows for weeks… and doesn’t seem to have spooked the market for any significant pullback just yet.

The Russell 2000 is showing superb intraday trend as the matching Russell 2000 Futures (TF) and other indices have moved upside. Though the volume is not a match, a solid start for this new listing. Summertime momentum continues at it’s best in the AM morning session as we now roll into earnings season after financials started to report on Friday. Permabears haven’t given up yet.

FANG/FAAMG stocks rebounding with the NQ pursuing its chase back up to the all time highs after a gap up. Monitor the next several weeks as earnings should play out the bigger picture and give cause to warrant the higher valuation in the market on the tech sector (NYSEARCA:XLK).

Technically by the charts, the indices (YM/ES/NQ) open gaps from week 28 are the first targets downside on any pullback.

I’m watching for any pullback to test support off the nearby 10 and 50 period moving averages. With the surge back above the 10 day ema and two new all time highs made on the Dow Jones Futures (YM) and S&P 500 futures (ES), evidence of weakness has taken as back seat again. As always be ready for both directions in an unpredictable market.

Key events in the market this week are on the lighter side with the Philly Fed and economic earnings starting to roll out.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND on the bigger pic as we hold above the key moving averages. As always, BEWARE of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead of if and when the market may sell off in reaction to unsettling news.

THE BOTTOM LINE

With all indices now above key moving averages, back within all time highs and a low VIX, monitoring for any pullback to the open gaps and or nearby 10/50 moving averages to the downside would be prudent. The case for higher highs is just as strong and whether you trade the intraday futures or indices ETF’s, momentum clearly resting on the uptrend is a much stronger play.

Swing ETF positions should be careful about chasing at the highs as pullbacks are always opportune times to re-enter the trend. The Dow Jones ETF (DIA) is currently showing the strongest trend of all four indices.

Nasdaq Futures  (NQ)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )

• Lowest Open Gap: 4017

S&P 500 Futures  (ES)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )

• Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75

Russell 2000 Futures (CME)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Consolidation

Multiple MML Overlay (RANGE)

• Lowest Open Gap: NONE

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Stock Market Futures Weekly Outlook: Trends In Motion appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE

The major stock market futures indices made new highs in week 29. And all except Dow Jones Futures (YM) closed above the weekly open.  And the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) highlighted the broad market strength by pushing higher.  An uber-calm VIX, though, should keep traders on their toes.

The major stock indices maintain momentum above the key moving averages and volume has been as expected for summertime. The key for day traders is being able to find those early AM trading setups.  And for trend traders to follow key moving averages and trend indicators.

The Volatility Index (VIX) dipped even lower in week 29 and is currently holding under 10. The Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) continues to pick up volume and shows on intraday trend just how well price momentum can move. Earnings season is under way and with NFLX/MSFT data being positive, seemed to be enough to lift the other FANG/FAAMG stocks. Don’t forget about those permabears…they are licking their chops.

Technically by the charts, the indices open gaps from week 28/29 are the first targets downside on any pullback. Watch for any pullback to also test support off the nearby 10 and trailing 50 period moving averages. With momentum holding above the 10ema and sitting at all time highs, monitoring the daily Murray Math levels upside may be used as an additional tool on forward projection. Many US sessions have opened with the globex trend already played out making the regular trading hours that more difficult. Watch for the chop if price action opens near the globex high and lows and gauge the momentum when the setup looks like a high probability trend.

As always be ready for both directions in the unpredictable market.

Key events in the market this week are earnings, FOMC and GDP.   

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND on the bigger pic as we hold above the key moving averages. As always, BEWARE of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead of if and when the market may sell off in reaction to unsettling news.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Rinse and Repeat….with all indices now above key moving averages, back within all time highs and a low VIX, monitoring for any pullback to the open gaps and or nearby 10/50 moving averages to the downside would be prudent. The case for higher highs is just as strong and whether you trade the intraday futures or indices ETF’s, momentum clearly resting on the uptrend is a much stronger play.

Swing ETF positions should be careful about chasing at the highs as pullbacks are always opportune times to re-enter the trend as the SPY and QQQ were opportune in week 29.

Nasdaq Futures (NQ)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )

• Lowest Open Gap: 4017

S&P 500 Futures (ES)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )

• Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75  

RTY – Russell Futures (CME)

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Consolidation

Multiple MML Overlay (RANGE)

• Lowest Open Gap: NONE

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Stock Market Futures Weekly Trend Outlook (July 24) appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE

The major stock market indices, made new highs once again in week 30 as the Dow Jones continues to rip higher (while the others churn a bit).

S&P 500 futures traded above/below the 10 day ema at the MML highs. The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) also put in a weekly Doji (indecision) Heikin Ashi bar.

The VIX Volatility Index bounce back above 10 last week after trading with a 9 handle for several days. Worth watching.

We are well into earnings season and most of the major FANG/FAAMG numbers are out without much disappointment. The Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) and tech lovers still are waiting on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) earnings.

Technically by the charts, with open gaps now closed out in week 30, any deeper downside will have quite a drop to close out the next level down on Dow Jones futures (YM).  S&P 500 futures (ES) and Nasdaq futures (NQ) gaps are concerning, but nothing we couldn’t take care of in a weeks price action if we lose support off the moving averages. The trailing 50 period moving average will be the first level of support on the indices. As long as price action holds above the 10ema, short term 10ema for support and MML levels upside on the higher time frames to manage the trade. If we break these levels, open gaps will be in play downside. Keep your eyes on the small caps as they are holding at the lows of week 30 and at the opposite end, the YM at the highs.

The summertime price action as we lead into August is surely not playing out to the norm which is ok. Keep it simple and watch the charts and leave the bias out of where the market should be. Best defense is a trailing stop on the longer time frames above your entry and far enough back to give the market some room to chop as the DIP buyers seem to be the only TREND holding up this market. Intraday, just simply wait for the setup whatever that may be and stick to your plan.

As always be ready for both directions in the unpredictable market.

Key events in the market this week are earnings, ADP and Non-Farm Payrolls.   

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND on the bigger pic as we hold above the key moving averages. As always, BEWARE of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead of if and when the market may sell off in reaction to unsettling news.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Waiting for the APPL earnings and NFP may be the highlight of the week aside from Washington indecision makers. The VIX which remains content at these levels and price action holding at or above the 10ema, will keep this market in an uptrend momentum. It is the catalyst which we monitor for weekly that will flush the market at any given chance. It appears the Russia/Chinese/North Korean tension may be enough to do just that.

The case for higher highs is just as strong and whether you trade the intraday futures or indices ETF’s, momentum clearly resting on the uptrend is a much stronger play.

NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

• Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )

Lowest Open Gap: 4017

ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

• Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )

Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Trading Trends & Outlook (July 31) appeared first on See It Market.

The Dow Jones Industrials continue to perform well with large cap stocks leading the way in Week 31 and into Week 32. Earnings season has gone well thus far but bulls are hoping this spills over into the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC).

To sum in it:  The Dow Industrials are pushing higher, the S&P 500 futures (ES) / Nasdaq futures (NQ) remain in consolidation, while the small caps pull up the rear after another rough week.

The ES daily candle chart is walking the 10 day ema tightrope yet maintaining momentum upside near all time highs. The ES weekly is once again in consolidation after 2 months of sideways price action at the MML highs. The NQ has been in consolidation for three weeks now and unable to break above the MMl 5937.50. On both charts, we’ve seen two weeks of Heikin Ashi indecision/doji bars and this calls for patience while we wait for the next breakout or pullback.

THE BIG PICTURE: Dow Industrials Lead The Way, But Watch Tech

Now that all FANG/FAAMG econ numbers are out, the follow through may be just enough to hold at the highs and the catalyst the market was looking for to push the NQ/Tech industry and ETF (XLK) to hold upside.

Transports have taken a hit since mid-July but may have found support near the daily 144 which has been in uptrend for some time. Overall the Vanguard stock market index (VTI) is still holding strong after a small pullback to the 34ema and moving back upside.

With just one more month of summertime trading left and the prospect of another rate hike in September, the action may begin to pick up. Keep this in mind in the weeks ahead. It’s also worth noting that the markets don’t care about the Washington antics. It looks at numbers. No reason to be trading based on political views – let your bias go and stay focused on your approach and process. As always be ready for both directions in the unpredictable market.

Key events in the market this week are earnings (DIS, NVDA, SNAP, APRN, CLN) Jolt’s and Fed Speakers.

Technical momentum probability REMAINS in a UPTREND on the bigger picture as we hold above key moving averages. As always, BEWARE of the catalyst wrench (Washington Politics) that looms overhead of if and when the market may sell off in reaction to unsettling news.

NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )

• Lowest Open Gap: 4017

ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND

Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )

• Lowest Open Gap: 1860.75

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Weekly Trend Outlook (August 4) appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE

The VIX Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) finally saw a move outside the comfort zone of most investors to close out in the mid 15’s last week. This saw the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) and Nasdaq (INDEXNASDAQ:.IXIC) pull back, along with the leading Dow Jones.

On the tech side of the ledger, FANG/FAMMG stocks pulled back off the highs before making  a recovery to close out the week (and likely to open this week). Blue Apron earnings, associated with Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) not coming in as hoped in week 32. Disney (NYSE:DIS) also made a splash in announcing that its pulling out of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) on all its content and starting their own service.

AND Permabear posts are starting to heat up.

By the charts, open gaps remain above on the Russell 2000 future (TF), Dow Jones futures (YM), S&P 500 futures (ES) and Nasdaq futures (NQ).  These are likely to be filled before any deeper move becomes a realization.

Surely if the indices will not be able to hold at their perspective 50 period averages, the 200ma, lower level MML levels and open gaps become viable levels to watch for support. The TF which mentioned last week can be the market leader in direction of trend has played out so far to be pulling the other markets with it.

As always be ready for both directions.

Key events in the market this week are earnings (WMT, HD, BABA, AMD, TGT) FOMC minutes and Philly Fed.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Technical Momentum probability remains in an UPTREND with caution on the RTY as it’s momentum has turned down.

Watch for more earnings this week as we also have the FOMC minutes released. Price action to regain traction will need to lift above the 10ema. The 50ma continues to be resistance above and support below. Complete loss of the 50 will seek the 200ma  and open gaps below. Upside momentum remains just as strong and prevailing heads may prevail and realize North Korean conflict is nothing more. Nothing wrong with being cautious but big picture remains intact upside as the we wait for the RTY/TF momentum to rejoin the trend.

I will notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 30 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

NQ – Nasdaq Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves amongst fractal levels from hourly to daily charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move.

Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )

• Lowest Open Gap: 4017

ES – S&P Futures

Technical Momentum: UPTREND Pullback

Multiple MML Overlay (DAILY )

• Lowest Open Gap: NONE

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Weekly Trend Outlook – August 14 appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE

Murray Math Level (MML) Charts

Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to weekly charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move. Optimal setups will pass through Resistance or Support prior to moving in the opposite trend.

Technical Trends Review

• The Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) is holding around 14.
• FANG/FAMMG stocks all off their 52 week high with Starbucks (SBUX) near its 52 week low
• The stock market indices all under 10 ema and at the hourly MML lows.
• The Dow Industrials (INDEXDJX:.DJI) is the only index at the 50ma; the others are under
• The Nasdaq and Dow with nearest open gaps on downside
• Russell 2000 small caps are leading momentum to the downside
• Crude Oil trend is range bound between 50/200 period moving averages
• Daily Gold off 7/11 MML lows back upside to MML highs into 7 day consolidation
• Transports (IYT) continues to slip with Energy (XLE)
• Technology Sector (XLK) holding strong upside above all key moving averages.
• US Dollar continues to hold near the 2015 lows; Emerging Markets @ 2016 highs
• S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) up 11.42% YTD
• Total Stock Market Index (VTI) drops under daily 50 ema in uptrend momentum
• Current IBD Outlook: Uptrend under pressure

Key events in the market this week: Fed Chair Yellen.

THE BOTTOM LINE: Technical Momentum probability remains in an UPTREND with confirmed pullback.

To confirm a downtrend on the bigger picture (daily to weekly), watching for not only price momentum to lose support off the 10 and 50, the crossing over the 50 and 144ema would confirm a high probability of further selling downside which has yet to occur. Watching for the 200ma support at this point with the lower MML levels, markets may find some reprieve and bounce up. Watching for price action to close under 2375 on the ES, would surely test and close out the three open gaps below that to 2279 as 2250 to 2125 become the lower targets. Until that time of the crossover, the momentum remains in nothing more than a cyclical and much need pullback correction in the market.

Watch for Yellen’s speech on Friday and end of the summer trading as the unknown of what lies ahead looms over the market. Not completely ready to sell off but the probability that we can regain the highs at any moment which will need to get back above the 50 and 10 period moving averages. Market indices most definitely at a key decision point at MML lows. Does the RTY/TF continue to drive us further down and lead the other indices or do we consolidate here before the next move in the market?

Swing ETF positions should be careful about chasing at the highs as pullbacks/quartley 3sig re-balance are always opportune times to re-enter the trend. All 4 indices have pulled back and stops may be moved to swing low positions if still in for the long trend. No re-entries at this time.

I will notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 30 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

LOWEST OPEN GAPS

• ES: 1589
• NQ: 3864.75
• YM: 14745

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Stock Market Trends: What To Expect This Week appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE

Stocks are facing an important week ahead. Several major stock market futures indices are nearing decision points so traders need to watch their moving averages for crossovers.  Without further adieu, here’s my weekly trading outlook.

S&P 500 Futures (ES) – Macro Outlook – Week 35 (week of August 28)

INDEXSP:.INX

A Note On Using MML Charts – Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to weekly charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move. Optimal setups will pass through Resistance or Support prior to moving in the opposite trend.

Technical Trend…

• See my Week 34 recap and trend charts
• Broad sock market indices finish higher for the week on a gap up Tuesday
• VIX Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) holding in the low 11’s
• FANG/FAMMG stocks all off their 52 week high
• Stock market indices holding at 60m MML 50% Pullback to Zone High and 10ema
• S&P 500 futures (ES) & Dow Jones Industrials futures (YM) with nearest open gaps downside
• Consolidation of indices major key moving averages
• The Russell 2000 small caps (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) leading momentum downside pullback off MML Zone low
• WTI Crude Oil trend remains range bound between 50/200 period moving averages at the MML 50% level
  • 46.88 break can retest 43.75 level; 50 upside
• Daily Gold futures trading off 7/11 MML lows back upside to MML highs into 11 day consolidation at 1296.9
  • Upside break, watch price to hold above 10ema; downside watch 50ma and MML 50% @1250

THE BOTTOM LINE

Technical Momentum probability on the indices remains in an UPTREND with confirmed consolidation.

To confirm a downtrend on the bigger picture (daily to weekly), I’m watching for price momentum to lose support off the 10 and 50 day moving averages and the crossing of the 50 day ema over the 144 day ema would confirm a high probability of further selling downside which has yet to occur.

The 200 day moving average which has been catching up to the 50 day moving average leaves markets at a point of not only consolidation but decision time. As long as price remains above the 10 day ema, the short term trend will keep us above the longer term averages which the Dow Jones Industrials futures (YM) and cash (INDEXDJX:.DJI) is the strongest to the upside

And the Russell 2000 (futures and cash index) is the weakest to the downside.

Until that time of the crossover, the momentum remains in nothing more than a cyclical and much needed pullback correction in the market.

Open Gaps below remain on all indices with the Dow Jones Industrials and Russell 2000 upside with all time highs above. Watch for 2429 open gap/100 daily ma on the ES down to MML levels around 2375 which would put the market in the zone of the 200ma; surely a test point. Upside momentum would need to regain traction above the 50ma and back upside to MML highs of last week’s session around 2453. 2500 would be the next upside level to watch. As I said before, consolidation  is a decision point and waiting till that breakout may be the best patience.

Watch for payroll and GDP this week and the upcoming contract expiration start to increase the volatility and September FOMC meeting for another possible rate hike to give us a total of three as may be excepted with no guarantees. The ends of summer as August draws out to a close and as fund managers close out the books may give the market the push it needs this week.

Will the small caps keep pushing/holding the market momentum down or the FANG/FAAMG stocks hold us up as they sit not far off from their 52 week highs?

I will notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 30 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

LOWEST OPEN GAPS

• ES: 1589
• NQ: 3864.75
• YM: 14745

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Stock Market Trends Weekly Update: Decision Time! appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE

The broader stock market remains in an uptrend, while geopolitical risks continue to linger. The best thing to do is follow the price action and avoid anticipation due to “noise”.  If/When we correct, your process should stop you out of the trade.  Without further adieu, here’s my weekly trading outlook.

S&P 500 Futures (ES) – Macro Outlook – Week 36 (week of September 4)

INDEXSP:.INX

A Note On Using MML Charts – Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to weekly charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move. Optimal setups will pass through Resistance or Support prior to moving in the opposite trend.

Technical Trends…

• See my Week 35 recap and trend charts
• Indices momentum remains upside
• Nasdaq futures (NQ) hit all time high and S&P 500 futures (ES) and Dow Jones Industrials futures (YM) within a days solid trend upside
• The VIX Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) levels holding at the low 10’s
• FANG/FAMMG stocks just off their 52 week high as APPL sitting at all time high
• Indices holding at 60m MML Zone High
  • As of Sunday open; Gap down
• The ES, NQ, and Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) with nearest open gaps downside (see open gaps chart below)
• Stock market indices major key moving averages in sync with 10>50>200
• NQ leading momentum back upside
• Crude Oil trend now range bound between 10/50 period moving averages at the MML 50% level
  • 46.88 break can retest 43.75 level if unable to hold on 60m chart at 45.5-46.09; 50 target upside
• Daily Gold futures trading at MML highs
  • Watch price to hold above 10ema; downside watch 50ma and MML 50% @1250 if it breaks 1312.5
• Bitcoin (CURRENCY:BTC) up to range MML highs as weekly breakout above after 2 week consolidation

• Current IBD Outlook: Confirmed Uptrend
  • IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) at range chart MML highs with weekly resistance low just above

Key events in the market this week

• Fed Speakers, Beige Book, Contract Volume Rollover
• ETF Conference at end of week
• Kroeger, Dell earnings report
• APPL event coming September 12th

THE BOTTOM LINE

Technical Momentum probability on the indices remains in an UPTREND.

With a holiday session on Monday, look for the month of September to be loaded with possibilities as key events will be forthcoming. As much as in the end the market only truly cares about is the the companies represented in the indices and their bottom line, global events will surely always play a minor setback as we are watching the events unfold with North Korea. It is my belief that based on my readings and not the media as my main resource, nothing will come of the tension and all will eventually be resolved. I could always be wrong also and that is why I remain with the status quo of uptrend is the play with an opportunity to buy even more if we pullback in the long term picture. Intraday…always ready in both directions.

To confirm a downtrend on the bigger picture (daily to weekly), watching for price momentum to lose support off the 10 and 50 and the crossing of the 50 over the 144ema would confirm a high probability of further selling downside which has yet to occur as we hold above all 3 key moving averages. As long as price remains above the 10ema, the short term trend will keep us above the longer term averages.

Lower open gaps remain on all stock market indices with none above except all time highs to watch for. Watch for 2459 open gap/100ma on the ES down to MML levels around 2375 which would put the market in the zone just under the 200ma; surely a test point. Upside momentum will need to hold above the 10/50ma and back upside to all time highs. 2500 would be the next upside level to watch. As I said last week, consolidation was the decision point and waiting till that breakout may be the best patience was answered and now it’s an issue of holding that level.

By the Murray Math Levels (MML), which in combo with the T3 strategy has shown what it takes to remain in the trend, surely has been an indicator of choice for key levels to watch for pullbacks and support levels.Week 34 was a perfect low to high drive off the MML lows as we closed out the week at the MML highs on the futures and indices ETF’s. Looking for the pullback on the smaller time frame to splice back in to the uptrend will be the key if we hold at the MML 50% to low zone and moving average support. Intraday shorts will trend well to test these levels.

Watch for Fed speakers and Beige book in economic highlights for the week. Heads up as future contracts volume begins to rollover to the December and summertime trading starts to end as we being the historical September to December time of year, a Trader’s Almanac favorite to comment on . FOMC will be in the scopes  as well if they will raise interest rates for the third time in 2017.

I will notify through social media and my daily outlook; posted 30 minutes prior to the US open of any updates throughout the week.

LOWEST OPEN GAPS

• S&P 500 Futures (ES): 1589
• Nasdaq Futures (NQ): 3864.75
• Dow Industrials (YM): 14745

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Stock Market Trends Weekly Update: Uptrend Intact appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE

The broader stock market remains in an uptrend. Although geopolitical risks continue to linger, the best thing to do is follow the price action and avoid anticipation due to “noise”.  If/When we enter a market correction, your process should stop you out of the trade.

Without further adieu, here’s my weekly futures trading update and outlook. We’ll start with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX).

S&P 500 Futures (ES) – Week 37  (week of September 11)

A Note On Using MML Charts:  Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to weekly charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move. Optimal setups will pass through Resistance or Support prior to moving in the opposite trend.

Technical Trends…

• See my Week 36 recap and trend charts
• Stock market indices momentum remains upside
• Consolidation is currently holding above moving averages
• VIX Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) falling again
• FANG/FAMMG stocks just off their 52 week high as APPL sitting at all time high
• Stock market indices pulling back off  Daily MML Zone High
  • The Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) the exception at 50% major S/R
• S&P 500 futures (ES) and Dow Industrials futures (YM) with nearest open gaps upside (see open gaps chart below)
• Major stock indices moving averages in sync with 10>50>200
  • Russell 2000 is the exception 10<50
• RTY/YM/ES momentum divergent of Nasdaq futures (NQ)
• Crude Oil pullback off the 200ma and downside of all key moving averages
  • 46.88 break can retest 43.75 level if unable to hold on 60m chart at 47.07- 47.66; 50 target upside
• Daily Gold prices at MML highs
  • Holding above 10ema; downside watch MML 50% @1312.5 if it breaks 1343  and the 50ma. Support at 1281.3.
• Current IBD Outlook: Confirmed Uptrend

Key Events in the Market This Week

• Quad Witch, CPI
• OPEC Monthly production report
• Media/Telecom Merger & Acquisitions meeting
• The Apple event

THE BOTTOM LINE

Technical Momentum probability on the indices remains in an UPTREND.

Here we go once again as Quad witch week is upon us and until ALL volume is in the next contract, consolidation seems to be the play until key events play themselves out. Though off the all time highs with no significant pullback at this point to test lower support levels, the momentum in the market on the Total Stock Market index remains up.

Besides the usual econ data to sway the market in either direction, the upcoming FOMC meeting and Fed Reserve balance sheets unwinding tied in with inflation data seem to be keeping the market at bay and holding pattern. Reward the September bears a bit, while still not pulling back any further. Apple uncertainty on product production may also be a contributing factor. Tax reform; is it going to happen? Surely a deal breaker for the POTUS administration and market momentum. In addition, the IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) which remains in 6 weeks consolidation,  a go to index for fundamental strong equities.

While conflicting indicators may show that the sell off is near, there are just as many indicators preparing for a super bullish run. Remain steadfast and patience as the signal for either direction will be evident and sweeping ticks and points for a piece of the momentum is better than being the first one in and the last one out.

By the technicals…

Open Gaps with plenty below remain on all indices with two above and all time highs to watch for. Watch for 2473 open gap upside on the ES if able to hold above 10 and 50 period moving averages. Downside look for 100ma support and MML levels 2437 to 2447. Upside level to watch in the 2475 to 2500 level.

By the Murray Math Levels (MML), which in combo with the T3 strategy has shown what it takes to remain in the trend, surely has been an indicator of choice for key levels to watch for pullbacks and support levels. NQ off the Daily MML high closes below 5937.5 indicating momentum pullback. Watch for the break of the 50ma and support at 5781. RTY which continues to struggle at the 50% MML will look to test 1437 upside and 1375 downside.

Swing ETF positions should be careful about chasing at the highs as pullbacks/quarterly 3sig re-balance are always opportune times to re-enter the trend. Watch for quarterly re-balance in 3 weeks. Stops may be moved to swing low positions if still in for the long trend. No re-entries at this time.

LOWEST OPEN GAPS

• ES: 1589
• NQ: 3864.75
• YM: 14745

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Stock Market Trends Weekly Update: Still Bullish appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE

The broader stock market remains in an uptrend. Worries continue to linger, but the best thing to do is follow the price action and avoid anticipation due to “noise”.  If/When we enter a market correction, your process should stop you out of the trade.

Without further adieu, here’s my weekly futures trading update and outlook. We’ll start with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX).

S&P 500 Futures (ES) – Week 38  (week of September 18)

A Note On Using MML Charts:  Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to weekly charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move. Optimal setups will pass through Resistance or Support prior to moving in the opposite trend.

Technical Trends…

• Check out my week 37 recap and trend charts.
• Stock market momentum remains upside.
• The Dow Jones (YM), Nasdaq 100 (NQ), and S&P 500 futures (ES) are all time highs with the Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT) lagging.
• The VIX Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) is back near the low 10’s.
• FANG/FAMMG stocks just off their 52 week high with Google off the most
• All 4 major stock market indices are at MML Zone High with YM breakout to short term upper resistance
• ES/YM/RTY with nearest open gaps downside (see open gaps chart below)
• Stock market indices major key moving averages in sync with 10>50>200
  • RTY exception 50<200
• RTY volume pickup on contract transfer from TF (ICE exchange)
• NQ/YM/ES volume even with 60 period average
• Crude Oil regains traction to MML highs
  • 50ma remains under 200 with price action above all three (10, 50, 200)
• Gold pulled back off MML high
  • MML short setup at 1343.8 with momentum now downside. 50ma>200.
• Current IBD Outlook: Confirmed Uptrend (FFTY)

Key Events in the Market This Week

• FOMC, Religious Holiday
• Adobe reports
• 5 Bank Giants are trading in consolidation and this is evident on the Financial Sector ETF (XLF) chart below

THE BOTTOM LINE

Technical Momentum probability on the indices remains in an UPTREND. Watch for MML setups on price action break above resistance high and back under resistance low. Watch for open gaps to be closed and 50% pullback.

Check out my latest Video and market outlook for the week ahead. I cover ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL and several ETF’s

THE LOWEST OPEN GAPS

• ES: 1589
• NQ: 3864.75
• YM: 14745

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Stock Market Trends Weekly Update: Bulls Running appeared first on See It Market.

THE BIG PICTURE

The broader stock market remains in an uptrend. And although we are overdue for a pullback, the best thing to do is follow the price action and avoid anticipation due to “noise”.  If/When we enter a market correction, your process should stop you out of the trade.

Without further adieu, here’s my weekly futures trading update and outlook. We’ll start with the S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX).

S&P 500 Futures (ES) – Week 39  (week of September 25)

A Note On Using MML Charts:  Using the Murray Math Level (MML) charts on higher time frames can be a useful market internal tool as price action moves among fractal levels from hourly to weekly charts. Confluence of levels may be levels of support/resistance or opportunities for a breakout move. Optimal setups will pass through Resistance or Support prior to moving in the opposite trend.

Technical Trends

• Check out my week 38 recap and trend charts.
• S&P 500, Russell 2000 (RTY), and Dow Industrials (YM) index futures momentum remains upside; Nasdaq futures (NQ) pullback downside
• Dow Jones Industrials (INDEXDJX:.DJI), Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL:RUT), and S&P 500 at all time highs with Nasdaq lagging.
  • After lagging in week 38, RTY lifts to all time highs.
• VIX Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) at sub-10 levels.
• FANG/FAMMG stocks off their 52 week high with MSFT closest.
• MML Trend: S&P 500 at Zone High; Russell and Dow on track to upside Zone High; Nasdaq trending to Zone Low.
• ES/YM with nearest open gaps downside (see open gaps chart below).
• Indices major key moving averages in sync with 50>200.
  • RTY exception 50<200.
  • NQ under 10ema.
• Average volume at and under 60 day average.
• Crude Oil holding at MML highs.
  • 50ma remains under 200 with price action above all three (10, 50, 200).
• Gold pulling back off MML high.
  • MML short setup at 1343.8 with momentum downside holding.
• Current IBD Outlook: Confirmed Uptrend (FFTY below).

Key Events in the Market This Week

• USA: Fed Speakers, GDP, Yellen
• GLOBAL: NZ Announcement, BOJ Minutes, JP CPI, GB GDP
• End of Q3
• Micron (memory chip maker) reports
• T-Mobile/Sprint merge?
• Affordable Health Care – last chance (The Health Care Sector ETF (NYSEARCA:XLV) is shown below

THE BOTTOM LINE

Contrary to Permabear consensus (and Jim Rogers) Technical Momentum probability on the indices remains in an UPTREND. NQ pullback evident though with ES/YM/RTY holding up and driving to MML highs as Q3 end nears may continue to hold upside.  As always, watch for MML setups on price action break above resistance high and back under resistance low. Downside, watch for ES/YM open gaps to be closed and 50% pullback.

THIS WEEK’S VIDEO:  Check out my market outlook   (markets covered: ES, YM, NQ, GC, CL and ETF’s)

LOWEST OPEN GAPS

• ES: 1589
• NQ: 3864.75
• YM: 14745

Attempting to determine which way a market will go on any given day is merely a guess in which some will get it right and some will get it wrong. Being prepared in either direction intraday for the strongest probable trend is by plotting your longer term charts and utilizing an indicator of choice on the lower time frame to identify the setup and remaining in the trade that much longer. Any chart posted here is merely a snapshot of current technical momentum and not indicative of where price may lead forward.

Thanks for reading and remember to always use a stop at/around key technical trend levels.

Twitter:  @TradingFibz

The author trades futures intraday and may have a position in the mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

The post Stock Market Trends Weekly Update – September 25 appeared first on See It Market.